Short Term Pain = Long Term Gain?

The global stock market has been turning weak again since early November. Particularly interesting is the fact that among global markets, only the Dow is testing its October low while the rest of the world are 10% or more above the October lows. I postulate two scenarios:

(i) Global markets lead the US, i.e. global equity markets are trying to bottom
(ii) US market leads the rest of the globe, i.e. more downside

While the extremely oversold conditions in all equity markets indicate (i) is possible, the bottoming may take a good few weeks (if not months). Also, the technicals of a few leading stocks (fertilizer, solar in the US, some big caps like Hutchison in HK) indicate that they are heading lower, so (ii) is still a possibility.

So my trading strategy is to be near term cautious as I have time to buy if (i) is indeed happening or if (ii) is indeed the case.